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math quant

How to measure anything

We can measure anything.

According to Doug Hubbard, author of “How to measure Anything” there are methods and more methods out there for measuring whatever we wish to measure. We take surveys, have a vote, get estimates by experts, or just count.

Does a thing have an effect on you or your company but is difficult to quantify? You can measure its effect with a survey, such as poor employee morale, the effects of losing parking spaces, or the coolness of a CEO.

Does a thing not exist yet but you are working on it? You can ask reliable experts, and even increase their reliability with calibration.

Do you not know what to measure because you want to know what has the greatest effect? You can measure the effects of various things on you as well. How much does the chance of a hurricane effect your house price? There exists tons of tools for just that.

Similarly, in investments, there are measurements for everything. Maybe too many. But whether you find the measurement you are looking for or not, it is out there.

Categories
math quant

Performance, and calculations

As you can see on the “Live results page”, the 412 Investments strategy is doing 21% per year as of August, 2018.

This long term investment strategy was developed using the latest technology circa 2013, neural nets, bayesian evaluation, and evolutionary algorithms. It was trained on data gathered from online XML using a system developed by a google engineer. This system works, and it has improved my own private wealth over the last 5 years.

This working system is my recommendation for anybody willing to take a medium risk and get a maximum return.

Furthermore, it has the property of being helpful to the market, while making more trades than a standard index fund. It is an investment solution based on “value investing”. That means that the undervalued stocks picked are not getting sufficient investments today. This investment strategy helps others do better as we invest in them, a positive sum game.

If you had invested in my system in August 1st, 2013 (when it was not yet available to the public, as it is now), you would have made 21.86% gain per year. Even if you chose a 10% annual performance fee, that would have beat an excellent market. How did the market do?

Nasdaq did awesome over the same period of August 1st, 2013 until today, and made 15.31% if you had invested in a nasdaq index fund. Index funds will likely be the second best investments.

 

 

Bitcoin, of course, did 104% gain per year on average, but it is not really an investment, and it is unlikely you would have known about it beforehand. There is some shady trades going on, and bitcoin is as likely to gain as drop going forward, down over 50% since its high point.

Want a scientifically proven algorithm that finds the best investments?